Hopefully it's clear that I care about mobile computing. (Perhaps a little too much?) And if you're reading this issue of Library Technology Reports, I'd hope that you care about it as well, or at least have a passing interest. One thing that I learned in library school is that for the past thirty-plus years, libraries and librarians have perceived themselves as subject to near-constant technological upheaval and information revolution, largely due to the rise of microcomputing, desktop computing, and Internet connectivity. I'll discuss in this chapter why tech and industry prognosticators believe that the impact of mobile computing on our society and economy will dwarf these earlier innovations. Can we measure or predict exactly how this impact will be felt by libraries? Perhaps not, but key indicators point to profound implications for delivery of information, access to services, shifts in the demographics of connected users, and broadband access business models. Libraries are uniquely positioned to advocate for the responsible evolution of mobile connectivity, and I would argue are duty-bound to move aggressively into provision of library services in the mobile realm.

I'm sure your library is cash-strapped, underresourced, understaffed. Development of tools and services that target mobile likely seems a distraction, a drain on your time and attention. It might feel like it's the flavor of the month, blustery conference paper fodder that's unlikely to pay off in real service to users.

What evidence would provide a good indication that the day had come for your library to focus concerted efforts on mobile services? If nearly all Americans owned cell phones? Maybe if a large percentage of those phone owners demonstrably used their device to access the Internet? Perhaps if smartphone sales began to approach sales of PCs? If major information service providers were shifting their focus from the desktop to mobile devices? If the trend turned away from mobile devices mimicking the functions of desktop computers, and instead desktops began to emulate mobiles? Maybe if there was evidence that traditional desktop connectivity wasn't reaching people who could be reached on their mobile devices?

If so, then that day is today.

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) counted over 270 million mobile phone users in the United States in 2009.¹ According to the Pew Internet and American Life Project, as of mid-2010, 82 percent of American adults own a mobile phone or a mobile computing device that works as a phone (this statistic does not include laptop computers).² The percentage is higher for younger adults. Fully 90 percent of Americans aged 18–29 own a cell phone.³

The Educause Center for Applied Research (ECAR) surveys undergraduate students at U.S. colleges and universities each year about their ownership and use of technology in its ECAR Study of Undergraduate Students and Information Technology. In 2004, 82 percent of study respondents reported owning a cell phone.⁴ In subsequent years that number rose so high that they have since ceased to bother asking.⁵

By the time you read this, the day that smartphone sales surpass PC sales may already have passed (figure 4). Industry watchers have variously pegged this inversion to occur anytime between 2010 and 2012. An RBC Capital analyst quoted by a Fortune magazine blogger predicts that between 2009 and 2012, the number of smartphone users worldwide will more than triple, from 165 million to over 500 million.⁶

The FCC reported that at the end of 2009, 42 percent of consumers owned a smartphone.⁷ According to the FCC, smartphones accounted for 44 percent of total mobile phone sales in 2009, and for 50 percent of phone upgrades.⁸ The FCC's definition of a smartphone is restrictive, however, as it counts over 228 million active mobile devices capable of receiving data service, and over 202 million active devices capable of browsing the Web.⁹ Over 35 percent of U.S. adults now own phones upon which they can install software applications, according to Pew. That number does not include devices like the iPad or iPod Touch, which can use apps, but which don't function as a traditional cell phone.¹⁰

ECAR found that fully 62.7 percent of U.S. undergraduates report owning an “Internet-capable handheld device.”¹¹

Users are taking advantage of the nonvoice connectivity provided by the current generation of mobile devices (figure 6). The Pew Internet and American Life project tells us that in 2010, 40 percent of adults in the United States report using their phone for Internet access, to send or receive e-mail, or for instant messaging. In 2009, that number was 32 percent.¹² A significant majority of young adults access the Internet from their phones, a full 65 percent according to Pew.¹³ A comScore press release reported that just over 30 percent of American cell phone owners age 13 and older used their device's web browser in an average month in early 2010.¹⁴

Those mobile Internet users are not just casual users. As of May 2010, Pew reports that 55 percent of mobile Internet users were going online with their phones at least daily, and 43 percent used the mobile Internet several times a day (figure 7).¹⁵ ECAR found that the frequency of mobile Internet use among undergraduates spiked in 2010. In 2009, just under half of undergrads who owned Internet-capable handheld devices used them to access the Internet weekly, and 29 percent did so daily. In 2010, 66.6 percent were online weekly, and 42.6 percent were daily users of the mobile Internet.¹⁶

I suppose it should come as no surprise then that between 2007 and 2010, AT&T Wireless, the U.S. mobile service provider for the iPhone, reported that demand for mobile bandwidth increased by nearly 50 times. You read that right. A 4,932% increase.¹⁷

I can hardly imagine the gigabytes of server space devoted to archiving library-related e-mail discussion threads in which debates have raged over the precise extent to which Google is good or evil, benevolent or creepy, friend or foe to libraries and librarianship. Regardless of your particular stance on these issues, I think it's clear that if we want to stay abreast of innovations in information services and delivery, we would be foolish not to watch Google closely.

Google has of course developed its own mobile operating system, Android, which I'll cover in more detail later. Beyond Android-specific mobile applications and services, Google has been very aggressive in creating best-of-breed web tools for a wide variety of mobile devices. And according to its CEO, Eric Schmidt, mobile is now considered the search giant's first priority when developing new services. Speaking at Mobile World Congress in early 2010, Schmidt said that his engineers are now working on mobile implementations first, before versions optimized for desktop browsers. “We understand the new rule is ‘mobile first’ in everything… . Mobile apps are better apps,” he said, according to eWeek.¹⁸ PCMag quoted him as saying, “Every product announcement we've done recently—of course we'll have a desktop version—but we'll also have one on a high-performance mobile phone.”¹⁹

The success of Apple's iOS device platform, the operating system that powers the iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad, has exceeded the expectations of almost everyone outside the company's Cupertino, California, headquarters. iOS was born out of, and shares a great deal of underlying code with, Apple's OS X desktop operating system. At a recent event, CEO Steve Jobs outlined the ways in which Apple's mobile development is now informing their desktop computer operating system. The event was called “Back to the Mac,” and at it Jobs and other Apple executives described how they were bringing the wildly successful App Store model from their mobile devices back to OS X 10.7, the new version of the Macintosh OS. Directly informed by the immersive full-screen applications developed for the iPad, many core applications in OS X 10.7 will take over users’ screens, eliminating the menu bars and windows we've long associated with multitasking desktop computers.²⁰

Libraries have long been at the forefront of advocacy for increased broadband Internet access, particularly for the poor and for rural Americans. Mobile may not yet be the ideal solution for rural users, but the demographics of mobile Internet usage show encouraging signs of increased access among groups that have long been underrepresented among Internet users in the United States.

The report Mobile Access 2010 from the Pew Internet and American Life Project notes that Latino and Black adults are more likely both to own mobile devices and to use them to access the Internet than their White peers (figure 8). While 80 percent of white adults own mobile phones, among African Americans and English-speaking Latinos the rate of ownership is 87 percent. Of all American adults with cell phones, 38 percent use them to access the Internet, but black and English-speaking Hispanic users far outstrip the average, at 46 percent and 51 percent respectively. Pew's survey did not have a Spanish-language option, so data on Spanish-speaking Latinos was not available.²¹

The evidence is compelling. The vast majority of Americans now own cell phones. Nearly half use them to access the Internet. Sales of smartphones have already or soon will surpass those of traditional PCs. Underrepresented groups are accessing the mobile Internet in impressive numbers. Google is developing for mobile first and the desktop second. Apple is in the midst of making its desktop computers behave more like its mobile devices. If your library, like mine (and every library I can think of), has been transformed by desktop computing and Internet access, now is the time to take action and be proactive in providing robust services to mobile users.